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Lok Sabha Election: The future of the UP coalition will be decided only in the first phase of voting

In Uttar Pradesh's 80 Lok Sabha seats, only 8 seats will be cast for the first phase. These eight seats are from western Uttar Pradesh. In such a scenario, the political future of the state will also be the political future of the state and the SP-BSP-RLD coalition.

The formal announcement of the Lok Sabha election 2019 has been made. In Uttar Pradesh's 80 Lok Sabha seats, only 8 seats will be cast in the first phase. These eight seats are from western Uttar Pradesh. In such a scenario, the political future of the state will also be judged by the political situation of the state and the political future of the SP-BSP-RLD coalition. Not only this, this question will also be answered whether the Jhulsa Jat and Muslim together in the flames of Muzaffarnagar riots will spoil BJP's equation or will Modi ride on the wave?

According to the announcement of the Election Commission, notification for the first phase elections will be released on March 18. While the polling will take place on April 11. Voting will be done in all eight Lok Sabha seats in this phase. These include seats in Saharanpur, Karaana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddha Nagar. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP got victory in these eight seats. However, in 2018, after the support of BSP and SP, RLD took the seat from BJP in the election held in Kaira Lok Sabha seat.

In UP, SP-BSP-RLD has been combine to beat BJP. In the first phase of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Meerut and Gautam Buddha Nagar seats, BJP has a direct fight with the BSP. While Muzaffarnagar and Baghpat seat RLD vs BJP At the same time, BJP is contesting from Caraana and Ghaziabad Lok Sabha seats with SP candidate.

It is clear from this that in the first phase, Modi will face Mayawati. The coming together of the SP-BSP-RLD is being considered as a big challenge for the BJP. Actually, the three parties have a strong vote bank, which can affect the eight seats of the first phase.

Saharanpur: BSP vs. BJP

In Saharanpur seat, the coalition is successful in uniting its Dalit, Jat and Muslim vote bank, then BJP may have to chew iron grams. The previous election BJP won this seat with a very marginal difference. There are about 6 lakh Muslims in Saharanpur, about 500,000 Dalits and 1 lakh votes cast of Jat voters.

The BSP has fielded Haji Fazlurrahman, and the Congress has bet on Imran Masood once. While the BJP has not yet declared its candidate. But the party is believed to be the party once again for its current MP Raghav Lakhanpal. There is a possibility of a triangular contest in this way.

Karaana SP vs BJP

Kaira Lok Sabha seat is in the SP's account, but the party has not yet announced the candidate. BJP's Hukum Singh won the 2014 Lok Sabha election, but later succeeded in winning this seat RLD with the support of SP in his election after his demise.

In the opinion of caste equation, the maximum number of 5 lakh Muslims, 4 lakh backward (Jat, Gurjar, Saini, Kashyap, Prajapati and others) and 1.5 lakh votes cast is Dalit and nearly 1 lakh non-caste Dalits are voters. Apart from this, there are about 2 lakh Jat voters. If the coalition succeeds in applying its vote bank in the same way as bypoll, the BJP will not be easy.

Muzaffarnagar RLD-BJP direct fight

Muzaffarnagar seat has gone to RLD's account in the alliance. It is believed that RLD chief Chaudhary Ajit Singh can go to this election from this constituency. The BJP and Congress have not announced the name of their candidate. However, BJP can withdraw its current MP Sanjeev Bialan once more. This seat is seen in favor of RLD in terms of caste equation.

Muzaffarnagar seat has gone to RLD's account in the alliance. It is believed that RLD chief Chaudhary Ajit Singh can go to this election from this constituency. The BJP and Congress have not announced the name of their candidate. However, BJP can withdraw its current MP Sanjeev Bialan once more. This seat is seen in favor of RLD in terms of caste equation.

There are about 5.5 million Muslims, 2.5 million Dalits and Jat voters close to two and a half lakhs in this seat. In addition, Saini and Kashyap are close to close to two lakh votes. If Ajit Singh succeeds in breaking the gap between Jat-Muslim, Chaudhary will do Sanjeevani for the family's politics, otherwise RLD will be in danger of survival.

Will RLD return to Jat Land Baghpat?

Jat's fortress has taken the seat of Baghpat in RLD's account. Ajit Singh's son Jayant Chaudhary is coming from Baghpat seat this time. For the BJP's Satyapal Singh, who has won 2 lakhs in the last elections, this time is not going to be easy. Actually, Jayant Chaudhary is hoping to win because of the coalition. This traditional seat of RLD has remained. Chaudhary Charan Singh has won consecutive elections in 1977, 1980 and 1984. Jayant's father and RLD chief Ajit Singh was MP six times. With the support of Jats, Muslims and Dalits, the RLD is exercising its intention to snatch this seat from BJP.

Challenges of BSP from BSP in Meerut-Hapur

West Uttar Pradesh's Meerut Lok Sabha seat has gone to BSP's account, the party has fielded Haji Yakub Qureshi from here. While BJP's Rajendra Agrawal has been a MP two times. However this time BJP and Congress have not announced the names of their candidates. This seat is considered as Muslim and Dalit dominant. In such a situation, if BSP candidates are able to unite Dalit, Muslim and Jat, it will not be easy to win for BJP.

VK Singh in Ghaziabad

Ghaziabad Lok Sabha seat has been in the SP's account. All SP, BJP and Congress have not announced their candidates yet. In the last Lok Sabha election, General VK Singh had become a Member of Parliament by defeating Congress Rajbabber by nearly five lakh votes and Minister in the Modi Government. It is believed that BJP can bet on them once more. In the ethnic equation, this seat is quite a challenge for both the BJP and the SP. However, if the coalition succeeds in looting their vote bank then the BJP candidate can get a tough fight.

Noida: BSP vs. BJP

Noida Lok Sabha seat has been in the BSP's account. The BSP has brought Satbir Nagar to the ground. It is believed that this time BJP can withdraw Union Minister Rajnath Singh. However, Congress and BJP have not announced their candidate's name yet. In the last elections, Mahesh Sharma had won. Passing through caste equation and Rajput-wide seat. If the coalition candidate is successful in uniting Dalits, Jats, Yadavs and Muslims, it would not be easy for the BJP to win the victory over this seat.

Bulandshahr: BSP vs. BJP

Bulandshahr Lok Sabha seat has gone to BSP's account and the party has fielded Yogesh Verma from here. At the same time, Congress and BJP have not yet announced the name of their candidates. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, Bhola Singh of BJP had won by about 4 lakh votes. But this time the equations have changed quite a bit. In such a way, winning again for BJP is not easy to win.

Bijnor: BSP and BJP in direct fight

Bijnor Lok Sabha seat has been in the BSP's account. The Muslim and Gujjar-dominated states are currently occupied by BJP and Kunwar Bharatendra Singh is an MP from here. This time, three major parties have not announced the names of their candidates. Party can bet on any one of Balka Nagar and Mohammed Iqbal from BSP. While BJP can take Bharatendra Singh once again. About 35 per cent Muslims and three lakh Dalits and two lakh Jats are voters in this constituency. In such a case, if all the three ethnic equations are successful, then it would be very difficult to get back to the BJP....